Why Crawford Beats Canelo (With a Few Dissenting Opinions)

It’s the biggest fight of the year and it takes place on Saturday at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, the home of the former Oakland Raiders. Omaha’s Terence Crawford (41-0, 31 KOs), will attempt to become a unified world champion in a third weight class, a feat that Guadalajara’s Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (63-2-2, 39 KOs) has already accomplished.

Crawford won his first title at 135. In his last outing in August of last year, he moved up from 147 to cop an interim title at 154 and now is leapfrogging right over the middleweight division to compete as a super middleweight. There’s an old saying in boxing that a good big man will always beat a good little man, but there have many exceptions to the rule with the name of Manny Pacquiao looming large. The size difference was the overwhelming factor that made Oscar De La Hoya a consensus 9/5 favorite when he fought Pacquiao in December of 2008. (To refresh your memory, Pac Man never had an anxious moment before De La Hoya quit on his stool after eight rounds.)

It seems as if Canelo has been around forever, but Crawford, who turns 38 later this month, is the older man by almost three full years. However, it would seem relevant that he has answered the bell for 245 rounds versus a whopping 520 for the Mexican superstar.

Promoter Bob Arum, trainer/pundit Teddy Atlas, retired champion/TV commentator Tim Bradley, former 140-pound world champion Amir Khan, retired multi-division world title-holder Mikey Garcia, and former junior middleweight champion Tim Tszyu are among those who have come out in favor of Terence Crawford.

Here are their observations (edited for brevity):

BOB ARUM – “It’ll either be a knockout or a wide decision, more likely a wide decision because Canelo is going to go into a shell,” Arum told The Ring magazine’s Keith Idec.  “People don’t realize how far back Canelo has gone. It wasn’t just the last fight but the fights before then.”

TEDDY ATLAS – Why did Canelo lose to Floyd Mayweather, asked Atlas rhetorically on his most recent podcast (while acknowledging that that fight was a long time ago). “It wasn’t because his hands were too slow,” said Atlas, answering his own question. “His feet were too slow. He couldn’t close the gaps fast enough. I think he’s going to have that problem in the same area [versus Crawford].”

TIM BRADLEY – “If Canelo couldn’t knock out [Jermell] Charlo, are you really thinking he’s gonna knock out Crawford?…I would pick Terence Crawford to beat a Canelo Alvarez even at 168,” Bradley told Fight Hub on June 28. “Trust me, Crawford will figure out a way.”

MIKEY GARCIA – “[Canelo] kind of goes on cruise control. …which allows Crawford, I think, to fight a little more comfortably. Crawford’s [ring] IQ is superb. So, I’m actually thinking he might pull it off,” said Garcia in an interview that ran on the Instagram feed of Fight News Corp on July 23.

AMIR KHAN (who fought both) — “The power Canelo has, Crawford has nowhere near any of that power. [But] if Crawford doesn’t get caught with any of his hard shots, I think Crawford wins the fight easily. With Canelo, I could hit him easier [and] Canelo is not the fighter he was when I fought him,” said Khan in a June 13 interview with talkSPORT.

TIM TSZYU – “I think Crawford can hurt Canelo. He has variety, and the shots you don’t see coming. I think he can do damage. In my opinion, from the way Canelo has looked in his last couple of fights, I think Crawford wins,” said Tszyu talking to The Ring magazine’s Manouk Akopyan.

That’s six votes for Terence Crawford in this very unscientific survey. For the sake of ballast, let’s get some contrasting opinions. Prominent trainers Abel Sanchez and Joel Diaz are firmly in Canelo’s corner.

ABEL SANCHEZ – “[Canelo] stops punches very well. He’s got great hands. He parries very well and he lands big shots…So, I think Canelo stops him or a wide decision in the end, and his corner has got to think about Crawford’s safety and health,” said Sanchez in a conversation with Round Eight Boxing.

JOEL DIAZ — “I see [Canelo] beating Crawford by a convincing decision…Canelo has been hit by heavier hitters and never even flinched. As soon as Canelo feels that Crawford doesn’t have what it takes to hurt him, he is going to walk him down,” Diaz told The Ring magazine’s Akopyan.

Welterweight Rolly Romero, still basking in his big upset of Ryan Garcia, is seldom at a loss for a good quote and we will let him have the last word.

ROLLY ROMERO – “Crawford is going to go in there and box Canelo’s head off the same way Amir Khan did, and out of nowhere, boom. Then we’re going to see a dead roach on the ground. Canelo [is just too big for him],” said Romero speaking to Fight Hype on July 13.

FYI: The odds hark to the Pacquiao-De La Hoya fight. The bigger man, Canelo Alvarez, is a consensus 8/5 favorite. The odds have been nicked down as money has come in on the underdog. As this fight is being held on a Mexican Independence Day weekend, one could logically expect the odds favoring Canelo to nick back up, if only in Las Vegas, but this reporter’s gut feeling is that the odds may drop even further as big bets come in on Terence Crawford.

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